The short-term trend of Bitcoin (BTC) may depend on developments occurring within Binance’s order flow and on-chain activity. Three metrics linked to Binance indicate an increase in sell-side pressure, shifting liquidity behavior, and a market poised for volatility—factors that could decide whether BTC maintains support or experiences a deeper correction.
Key takeaways:
Increased Bitcoin whale deposits into exchanges suggest a heightened risk of profit-taking.
BTC inflows to Binance have reached levels matching 2025 highs, historically preceding longer pullbacks.
USDt deposits on Binance have hit yearly highs, signifying that traders are adjusting their positions in anticipation of potential volatility.
BTC Whale ratio rebound indicates distribution pressure
An increase in the Exchange Whale Ratio, currently at 0.47 across all exchanges, suggests that large holders are transferring Bitcoin to trading platforms. This trend raises concerns on Binance, where the ratio’s 14-day exponential moving average (EMA) has risen to 0.427, its highest level since April.
Whale deposits often signal upcoming distribution phases, as large entities typically favor Binance’s liquidity for unloading significant amounts. With BTC finding it difficult to rise above $93,000, this shift suggests increasing resistance. If this trend continues, the price may consolidate or retest support before aiming for another breakout.
Yearly-high BTC inflows to Binance raise concerns
On-chain data indicated that the 30-day simple-moving average (SMA) of BTC inflows to Binance reached 8,915 on Nov. 28, nearly matching its peak of 9,031 on March 3. Historically, such inflow peaks, including the one in March, have often preceded significant downward moves.
This upsurge suggests that holders may be preparing to de-risk or cycle out of Bitcoin following its recent rally. With the market trying to hold above $96,000 resistance, Binance’s increasing inventory serves as an immediate obstacle. Until this excess supply is absorbed, any uptrend could be constrained.
Related: Bitcoin unlikely to replicate January’s surge to new high: 21Shares founder
USDT deposits rise: Are traders gearing up for volatility?
Binance also reported 946,000 USDt (USDT) deposit transactions over seven days, significantly surpassing OKX (841,000) and Bybit (225,000). Rising stablecoin inflows generally indicate traders could be gearing up to act, either aggressively buying dips or repositioning during swift market moves.
Given the current scenario of whale selling and elevated BTC inflows, this surge likely indicates traders are preparing for reactive trading rather than passive accumulation. In times of uncertainty, stablecoin inflows often result in increased volatility and short-term range adjustments.
If BTC falls below $90,000, this liquidity could further accelerate the decline. Conversely, if support holds, it might trigger a sharp rebound.
Related: Ether outpaces Bitcoin’s trend change: Is ETH on track for a 20% rally?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
