Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), continued its decline into December, having dropped around 30% in the last three months, raising concerns about the potential for further declines by year-end.
Key highlights:
ETH might dip toward $2,500–$2,200 if MVRV support and the pennant break down.
A potential falling wedge breakout keeps bullish hopes alive for a surge to $3,550.
Ether’s MVRV highlights $2,500
As of Tuesday, Ether retested its −0.5σ MVRV deviation band (teal), currently near $2,820–$2,830, serving as support for the second time this week, according to Glassnode data shows.
The MVRV bands compare Ether’s market price with the levels at which holders previously moved their coins, often indicating vital support and resistance zones.
Consequently, the −0.5σ band has frequently acted as a significant mid-cycle support during downturns.
In March, ETH’s critical closing below the −0.5σ band preceded a 40% decline, with price moving toward the realized price band (purple) as the first major downside target.
A persistent breakdown below the −0.5σ support could again direct attention to the realized price near $2,500, a level that has historically acted as a downside magnet during market corrections.
Ether pennant indicates potential 20% correction
Ether’s recent price movement has formed a bearish pennant on the daily chart, a triangle-shaped continuation pattern that usually emerges after steep declines, with resolutions in the direction of the previous trend.
A confirmed pennant breakdown would pave the way for a measured move toward the $2,200–$2,220 range, approximately 20% lower than current levels. This area aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally and a previous demand cluster from April.
The downside target also coincides with the apex of a falling wedge pattern referenced by analyst Don.
Falling wedges typically lead to breakouts; however, this may suggest that ETH could find a local bottom around the $2,200-2,220 level in December.
Related: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade: Scaling rollups without breaking the core
If the price manages to break above the upper trendline of the wedge, ETH could rise toward $3,550 as the new year approaches.
This upward target is consistent with price predictions from multiple analysts during recent downturns. Additional Ether valuation models suggest ETH prices could exceed $4,000, labeling the cryptocurrency “undervalued.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
