The current trading dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) reveal one of the most significant macroeconomic disconnections in years, with global liquidity rising sharply while BTC lags behind both money supply growth and gold’s remarkable performance. A recent report from Bitwise indicated that this disparity might be creating a notable asymmetric opportunity for Bitcoin as we move toward 2026.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s current valuation is falling 66% below the global money supply, suggesting a model-based fair value around $270,000.
Gold has captured the majority of 2025’s monetary-dilution demand, now exceeding the global M2 by 75%.
Global liquidity shifts, yet Bitcoin remains stagnant
The latest edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report argued that the fundamentals supporting Bitcoin are significantly more optimistic than its current price indicates. Global liquidity is convincingly shifting toward reflation: the U.S. is set to issue almost $1.9 trillion in Treasuries annually, former President Donald Trump has pledged $2,000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program concluded on December 1.
Simultaneously, Japan is introducing a $110 billion stimulus plan, Canada has resumed quantitative easing (QE), and China has endorsed a substantial $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative. With over 320 rate cuts globally in the preceding 24 months, global M2 has skyrocketed to a historic $137 trillion.
In light of this, Bitwise pinpointed one of the most significant valuation disparities in Bitcoin’s history. Their cointegration model suggests that BTC is undervaluing the global money supply by about 66%, indicating a model-implied fair value of approximately $270,000. This disconnect presents a hypothetical upside of around +194% should Bitcoin align with its long-term liquidity anchor.
Put simply, Bitcoin is undervalued in the context of global monetary expansion, which is significant since BTC has historically acted as the most sensitive indicator for monetary dilution owing to its absolute scarcity, as emphasized in the report.
On the other hand, gold has absorbed the majority of 2025’s liquidity surge, now exceeding the global money supply by nearly 75%, a situation that Bitwise asserts “further reinforces the case for an imminent rotation with potentially significant performance impacts” in Bitcoin.
Related: Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin bottom won’t fall under $55K
Bitcoin poised for robust risk-adjusted returns against gold
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin’s trend setup is currently lagging behind gold in both momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics, placing the two assets at “polar opposites.”
The Sharpe ratio measures how much return an asset generates in relation to its volatility, indicating that gold is presently offering superior risk-adjusted returns compared to Bitcoin. While not signaling an immediate reversal, Timmer portrays this widening divergence as a potentially enticing mean-reversion setup.
Expanding the view, Timmer noted that Bitcoin continues to generally align with its long-term power-law adoption trajectory, despite its drop below $100,000. As BTC matures and experiences limited parabolic growth, Timmer likened BTC to “gold’s precocious younger sibling growing up,” remaining structurally robust, albeit less volatile.
Related: Bitcoin’s lack of price strength due to timid spot buyers: What comes next?
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
