Solana’s (SOL) onchain activity is signaling a significant supply-side shift as the cryptocurrency remains just above the $120 support level. However, increased market participation is necessary to convert this structural edge into upward momentum.
Key insights:
$2.12 billion USDC flowed into Binance, while $1.11 billion SOL exited, creating a classic bullish setup around the $120 mark.
SOL futures volume decreased by 3%, whereas BTC and ETH experienced increases of 43% and 24%, indicating a lack of trader engagement despite improving spot conditions.
Relative unrealized profit has dropped to October 2023 lows, reflecting a marketwide profitability reset akin to previous accumulation phases.
USDC inflows and SOL supply constraints support $120 floor
Recently, Solana experienced a notable liquidity divergence on Binance, with USDC inflows soaring to $2.12 billion while SOL outflows surpassed $1.11 billion. CryptoQuant data showed that this trend is essential for maintaining key support levels, including $120, above which prices have stabilized.
Large inflows of stablecoins typically indicate upcoming buy-side liquidity from major players or institutions that are partially sidelined. In tandem, outflows of the native token decrease selling pressure on exchanges, suggesting a structural supply crunch.
The $450 million outflow from USDt (USDT) further illustrates a pivot towards capital deployment in Solana ecosystems via USDC, a trend historically associated with positive market behavior.
Despite a tightening supply, sustained demand is crucial. Without active spot buyers, the intrinsic strength in supply alone may fail to support broader price movements.
According to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap, a significant number of buyers have recently acquired around 17.8 million SOL at a cost basis of $142 and another 16 million SOL at $135.
These clusters serve as onchain support and resistance levels:
Significant clusters below the price create strong support, as many holders are either profitable or close to breakeven and are incentivized to protect their positions.
Large clusters above the price create potential resistance, as trapped liquidity may sell during a rebound.
Therefore, for SOL to gain momentum, it must reclaim the $135 and $142 levels, enabling the recent buyers to act as strong foundational support.
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Futures trading slows while SOL PnL resets
While onchain flows indicate accumulation, derivatives trading suggests a more cautious atmosphere. SOL futures volume decreased by 3%, even as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) recorded notable gains of 43% and 24% respectively.
This discrepancy implies that SOL traders have been relatively inactive, contrasting with the capital influx into ecosystems via stablecoins.
Meanwhile, relative unrealized profits have dropped to levels not seen since October 2023, when SOL traded around $20. Such resets in profitability may indicate that speculative excess has been eliminated, positioning the market for attractive reaccumulation.
Net Realized Profit/Loss has also shown significant negative numbers in November, resembling the profound realized losses seen during the February–April 2025 bottoming period. Historically, such patterns precede stronger recovery cycles, but for upward momentum to materialize, traders need to re-engage.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
