Solana’s (SOL) onchain activity is signaling a significant supply-side shift with the cryptocurrency trading just above the $120 support level. However, increased market participation is still required to leverage this structural advantage for upward movement.
Key takeaways:
A total of $2.12 billion USDC entered Binance, while $1.11 billion SOL exited, establishing a classic bullish configuration around the $120 mark.
SOL futures volume decreased by 3%, whereas BTC and ETH experienced increases of 43% and 24%, indicating a lack of trader activity despite favorable spot market conditions.
Relative unrealized profit has dipped to its lowest levels in October 2023, suggesting a market-wide reset in profitability, akin to prior accumulation periods.
Stablecoin inflows and SOL supply shortage reinforce $120 support
Over the past week, Solana experienced a notable liquidity divergence on Binance, with USDC inflows surging to $2.12 billion, while SOL outflows surpassed $1.11 billion. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that this trend is critical for maintaining significant support levels, including $120, above which prices have found stability.
Significant stablecoin inflows generally indicate awaiting buy-side liquidity from prominent investors or institutions that are partially inactive. In contrast, outflows of native tokens lessen sell pressure on exchanges, further supporting the notion of a supply crunch.
The $450 million outflow of USDT highlighted a shift towards USDC-based capital deployment within Solana ecosystems, a trend that has historically correlated with positive market behavior.
Even with a tightening supply profile, active demand remains crucial. A lack of engaged spot buyers may prevent supply-side strength from generating substantial price movements.
According to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap, a significant group of buyers recently acquired around 17.8 million SOL at an average cost of $142 and an additional 16 million SOL at $135.
These concentrations function similarly to onchain support and resistance areas:
Large concentrations below the current price tend to create strong support, as many holders are either in profit or close to breakeven and are motivated to defend their positions.
Large concentrations above the current price may establish potential resistance, as trapped liquidity could sell during recoveries.
Thus, SOL must reclaim the $135 and $142 levels for recent buyers to serve as robust foundational support zones.
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Futures activity stagnates while SOL PnL resets
While onchain flows indicate accumulation, the derivatives market reflects a more cautious stance. SOL futures volume fell 3%, while BTC and Ether (ETH) saw significant increases of 43% and 24% respectively.
This discrepancy implies that traders in Solana have been relatively inactive, contrasting with the influx of capital into ecosystems via stablecoins.
Meanwhile, relative unrealized profit has decreased to October 2023 levels, when SOL was priced around $20. Such resets in profitability may suggest that speculative excess has been eliminated, positioning the market in an appealing reaccumulation phase.
Net Realized Profit/Loss has also shown substantial negative readings in November, echoing the significant losses recorded during the bottom-range formation seen from February to April 2025. Historically, similar patterns have preceded stronger recovery phases, but traders must re-engage to translate positioning into upward movement.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
