Bitcoin’s (BTC) current trading behavior indicates one of its most significant macroeconomic disconnects in years, as global liquidity rises while BTC lags behind money supply growth and gold’s record gains. A recent report from Bitwise suggested that this gap may present a noteworthy asymmetric opportunity in Bitcoin as we approach 2026.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is currently falling short of the global money supply by 66%, indicating a model-based fair value around $270,000.
Gold has captured a significant portion of 2025’s monetary dilution and now exceeds global M2 by 75%.
Global liquidity shifts, but Bitcoin hasn’t yet responded
A new edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report argued that the fundamental environment for Bitcoin is significantly more bullish than its current price suggests. A pivot towards reflation is evident: the US is issuing nearly $1.9 trillion in Treasurys annually, preparing $2,000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program concluded on Dec. 1.
Simultaneously, Japan is implementing a $110 billion stimulus package, Canada has resumed quantitative easing (QE), and China has sanctioned a large $1.4 trillion fiscal program. With over 320 global rate cuts in the past 24 months, global M2 has reached a historic high of $137 trillion.
In this context, Bitwise pointed out one of the largest valuation discrepancies in Bitcoin’s history. According to their cointegration model, BTC is currently undervalued by about 66% concerning the global money supply, implying a fair value near $270,000. This discrepancy suggests a potential upside of approximately +194% if Bitcoin returns to its long-term liquidity equilibrium.
In summary, Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to the scale of global monetary expansion, a crucial observation given BTC’s history as the most sensitive barometer for monetary dilution due to its scarcity, as highlighted in the report.
Conversely, gold has taken in most of 2025’s liquidity demand and is now surpassing the global money supply by nearly 75%, leading Bitwise to say this “further strengthens the case for an imminent rotation with potentially very large performance effects” in Bitcoin.
Related: Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin bottom won’t fall under $55K
Bitcoin poised for robust risk-adjusted returns against gold
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin’s trend setup currently lags behind gold in momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics, placing the two assets at “polar opposites.”
The Sharpe ratio evaluates how much return an asset generates relative to its volatility, indicating that gold is presently providing superior risk-adjusted performance compared to Bitcoin. While no reversal is currently indicated, Timmer viewed this widening gap as a potentially intriguing mean-reversion opportunity.
Looking at the bigger picture, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin remains broadly consistent with its long-term power-law adoption curve despite its decline below $100,000. As BTC matures with constrained parabolic gains, Timmer characterized BTC as “gold’s precocious younger sibling growing up,” still fundamentally strong, but less volatile.
Related: Bitcoin’s lack of price strength due to sheepish spot buyers: What happens next?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
