Hedera (HBAR) has seen an increase of over 14% this week, recovering from a recent decline. However, despite this short-term recovery, the HBAR price remains nearly 9% lower for the month, indicating a clear downtrend.
The conflicting signals from various indicators now raise an important question: Are whales signaling an impending crash that both smart investors and retail traders might be overlooking?
Sponsored
Smart Money and Retail Stay Bullish Despite Warning Signs
The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the actions of seasoned HBAR traders, has been rising since October 26, achieving higher highs and surpassing its signal line. This generally indicates that knowledgeable traders are anticipating a recovery or believe that the worst has passed. Even after a slight pullback, the SMI remains close to 1.08, indicating a cautiously optimistic short-term perspective.
For more insights into tokens like this, sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
If the index stays above that level, the outlook remains positive. However, a drop below 1.08 could swiftly change the sentiment.
Retail traders also appear optimistic, perhaps even more so than Smart Money. The Money Flow Index (MFI) — a gauge of buying and selling pressure based on price and volume — has surged from around 35 to 69.4 in a fortnight. This sharp increase indicates fresh inflows and heightened interest from retail investors, suggesting that smaller traders are buying the dips in anticipation of a recovery.
Sponsored
In summary, smart money and retail still see potential for upside in HBAR’s price. However, that confidence may not hold, as whales quietly exit the market.
Whales Are Exiting While Smart Money Bets on a Rebound
While smaller HBAR traders and institutional indicators appear optimistic, large account holders paint a different picture. Data reveals that accounts holding over 100 million HBAR have decreased from 41.75% of the total supply to 40.65% since October 21, indicating that roughly 1.1% of holdings among these whales have exited in under two weeks.
Sponsored
This amounts to at least 110 million HBAR moving out of large wallets. At the current market price, this equates to over $20.9 million in value leaving the hands of whales. This shift is significant, occurring during a time when smaller traders are becoming bullish.
It presents a classic divide: smart money and retail believe the bottom is in, while whales seem to be preparing for a further decline. If whales are indeed anticipating a correction, indicators should start reflecting this— and they already are.
Sponsored
HBAR Price Chart Shows “Hidden” Bearish Divergence or The Crash Catalyst
On the daily chart, the HBAR price has been confined to a narrow range between $0.219 and $0.154 since October 11, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers, potentially traders and whales.
From October 6 to October 29, the price registered a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which monitors price momentum — produced a higher high. This pattern reveals hidden bearish divergence, a setup that frequently foreshadows the continuation of an existing downward trend. For HBAR, this could trigger a correction if critical levels are breached.
Currently, HBAR is trading above $0.189, but breaching that support could lead to a downturn towards $0.168. If selling persists, the next major support level lies around $0.154, and if that fails, the token could drop to $0.119.
A drop below $0.168 would confirm a bearish continuation. Maintaining above it might enable short-term consolidation. For now, the probabilities lean towards a deeper pullback in HBAR’s price unless new buying volume comes in to counteract the ongoing exits from whales.
