Ethereum (ETH) is approaching November with measured optimism. The price of Ethereum has increased by 2.2% over the week, yet it has decreased by nearly 3% in the past 24 hours, despite the Fed’s interest rate cut. October finished weakly, showing a 6.8% loss for the month; however, November has historically been favorable for Ethereum, averaging a gain of 6.93% month-over-month, with last year’s performance being particularly notable.
With new on-chain trends emerging, all attention is focused on whether ETH can replicate its impressive November performance.
History Supports Ethereum, and the Selling Incentive Is Diminishing
Ethereum’s performance in November has been typically bullish, showing average gains exceeding 6.9% over the past eight years, with a remarkable 47.4% rally in 2024 marking one of its top months.
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This time, despite October’s underperformance, the market structure indicates a potential for a similar rebound, as one of the selling incentives is decreasing.
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The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which assesses whether investors are holding profits or losses, has fallen from 0.43 to 0.39 since October 26, a 9.3% drop. This is close to the monthly low of 0.38, a point that previously triggered a 13% increase in the ETH price (from $3,750 to $4,240).
This reduction suggests that the incentive for investors to sell is receding, a common precursor to price stabilization. If this historical trend continues, November could signify a shift from selling pressure to reaccumulation. Interestingly, some groups have already begun accumulating.
November Might Be a Contest Between Whales and Holders
While long-term holders have stepped back, whales are cautiously increasing their positions.
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Data from Santiment reveals that wallets containing between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH increased their holdings from 99.28 million to 100.92 million ETH during October — consistent buying despite a 7% decline in price for the month. This equates to an addition of 1.64 million ETH, valued at approximately $6.4 billion at the current price.
On the other hand, the Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) from Glassnode indicates a contrasting trend. HAR tracks how many addresses are increasing their balances versus those that are decreasing them — a higher value indicates more accumulation, while a lower one suggests selling pressure.
For Ethereum, HAR has declined since the end of October, from 31.27% to 30.45%, indicating that long-term holders have decreased their accumulation rates and are instead reducing exposure.
This disparity suggests that whales are fueling demand, while older ETH holders are lessening their exposure — a dynamic that may shape ETH’s trajectory in November.
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As Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC, stated exclusively to BeInCrypto,
“Recalibration into higher-beta assets is anticipated to gain momentum as Bitcoin stabilizes above support. Ether fits this positioning well, offering yield-earning potential through staking and strong upside due to adoption,” he noted.
This recalibration perspective helps clarify the current divide — with whales positioning themselves early for growth assets while long-term holders remain cautious. Fundamentally, this reflects a shift in confidence. Whales seem to be viewing Ethereum’s staking yield and expanding tokenized infrastructure as motivations to accumulate, while holders may still be waiting for clearer market signals.
If the Holder Accumulation Ratio stabilizes in November, it could indicate that retail conviction is beginning to catch up to whale confidence, enhancing the effects of this larger recalibration.
Ethereum Price Setup and Technical Forecast for November
On the 2-day chart, ETH exhibits signs of a hidden bullish divergence — a scenario where the price creates higher lows while the RSI records lower lows. Between August 21 and October 28, ETH’s price set a higher low while the RSI dropped, signaling that sellers are diminishing in strength.
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This pattern reinforces the notion that whale confidence might prevail over short-term weaknesses, confirming a broader uptrend. Ethereum remains approximately 5% higher over the last three months — supporting this uptrend. Currently, Ethereum is trading near $3,860, facing resistance levels at $4,070 and $4,240.
Young also emphasizes significant key levels:
“A breakthrough above $4,200 may pave the way toward $4,500–$4,700, whereas a rejection may merely extend the accumulation phase,” he highlighted.
These figures align closely with Ethereum’s current formation, where $4,240 acts as a crucial confirmation point. A close above this level could propel ETH toward $4,620, which represents the upper limit of its long-term channel. This level also fits within Young’s projected price range.
He further noted that the overall setup remains positive, despite short-term hesitations:
“Fundamentally, the broader structure seems constructive — the network keeps growing, transaction demand is strong, and staking continues to alleviate supply pressures,” he further explained.
Key support levels are found at $3,790 and $3,510. If the price falls below $3,510, it would invalidate the bullish outlook; however, the hidden divergence and whale accumulation suggest a gradual recovery trend as we move into mid-November.
