Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in determining its next move as volatility decreases and uncertainty grows among traders. Following a period of indecision, the recent short-term price movements have been erratic, leaving both bulls and bears lacking confidence. Insights from CryptoQuant indicate that a thorough analysis utilizing Price Action, Volume Profile, and Liquidation Heatmap data from Binance shows Bitcoin has remained within a defined trading range for the last 120 days.
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The report notes that this range is primarily situated between $107,500 and $119,300, with the Point of Control (POC) — the level exhibiting the highest trading volume — around $117,500. Despite multiple attempts to climb higher, BTC has consistently failed to maintain momentum, retracting into this range each time. Analysts interpret this behavior as indicative of a market in balance, poised for a trigger to break in either direction.
Within these confines, Bitcoin traders are attentively observing liquidity clusters and crucial volume zones to predict the next significant movement. Whether BTC manages to reclaim higher levels or probes lower supports, the breakout from this 120-day range could establish the next major phase of the cycle.
Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Test at the Point of Control (POC)
According to CryptoOnchain’s most recent analysis on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s latest breakout attempt beyond its 120-day trading range has not gained traction, resulting in what analysts refer to as a classic “Look Above and Fail” pattern. The initial movement triggered a short squeeze that liquidated numerous sellers on Binance, temporarily elevating the price. However, this rally quickly fizzled due to inadequate follow-through buying, leading BTC to return to its established range — a signal of underlying market weakness.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below the pivotal Point of Control (POC) at approximately $117,500 — the price level with the highest trading volume. This level has become a crucial battleground for the upcoming significant movement.
In a bullish scenario, a confirmed breakout above the POC could convert this area into support and potentially lead to a retest of the Value Area High (VAH) around $119,300. Such a development may also incite short liquidations, driving BTC towards the buy-side liquidity zone above $120,000.
Conversely, if the POC continues to be a point of rejection, it would likely signal renewed selling pressure, targeting the Value Area Low (VAL) near $107,500 where notable stop-losses and long liquidations are concentrated.
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Bitcoin Bears Defend the $110K Zone
Bitcoin is again struggling to gain momentum after failing to surpass resistance around $111,000. The chart indicates that BTC remains situated below significant moving averages, with the 50-day SMA acting as a dynamic ceiling around $112,000 and the 100-day SMA near $114,000, reinforcing bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA, currently around $107,000, provides short-term support — a critical threshold that bulls need to defend to prevent deeper losses.
The market structure reveals that BTC continues to operate within a constrained range between approximately $107,000 and $117,500. Recent price actions have been characterized by failed breakouts and sharp retracements, underscoring indecision and a lack of conviction among both bulls and bears.
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A sustained movement above the $111,000–$112,000 area could pave the way for a test at $117,500, which has consistently served as a significant resistance level since August. Conversely, a breakdown below $107,000 would likely intensify selling pressure toward the $103,000 region — the low from an earlier flash crash this month.
At this juncture, Bitcoin remains in a period of consolidation, with market participants on the lookout for a decisive breakout to ascertain whether the forthcoming major movement will be a bullish reversal or a continuation of the existing downtrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
