The setup for crypto as the year concludes remains largely optimistic, as outlined in Coinbase Institutional’s fourth-quarter 2025 report “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report, created in partnership with Glassnode.
The analysis reflects a cautious but upward bias following the market shakeout on October 10. Coinbase attributes the decline to significant leverage interacting with thin order books, exacerbated when auto-deleveraging on certain exchanges curtailed market-maker shorts and reduced liquidity. The firm notes a degree of price stabilization into the weekend, although caution persists as macroeconomic concerns re-emerge.
Liquidity and macroeconomic conditions are central to Coinbase’s perspective.
The Global M2 Money Supply Index from Coinbase — historically aligned with bitcoin prices and typically leading by about 110 days — commenced the quarter favorably, although the report cautions that tighter conditions may arise later in Q4. Additionally, Coinbase predicts two further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the year concludes, a move it suggests could draw cash back from money-market funds into riskier assets.
Policy and trading mechanics also feature in what Coinbase considers a positive environment.
The report emphasizes stablecoin supply and monthly transfer volumes at historically high levels, suggesting a shift towards more on-chain payments and transfers. It also highlights the progress of U.S. spot ETF frameworks for bitcoin and ether, deepening access for traditional investors and enhancing market stability. Coinbase posits that these developments focus less on headlines and more on the underlying infrastructure that maintains liquidity and usage during volatile periods.
When discussing positioning, Coinbase expresses a preference for bitcoin, describing it as the “digital gold” amidst ongoing skepticism regarding fiscal and monetary discipline. The report indicates that ether also appears constructive: advancements in scaling have intensified activity on layer-2 networks, fees have decreased, and sentiment has improved since earlier this year. A survey of investors included in the report reveals a majority of institutions are bullish on BTC for the next three to six months, even as many identified the macroeconomic backdrop as a key risk.
Coinbase allocates attention to digital-asset treasury companies (DATs), labeling them as significant, relatively stable purchasers of BTC and ETH. This group now commands a substantial share of the circulating supply and continues to serve as a critical source of demand. Concurrently, Coinbase recognizes lingering uncertainties regarding long-term business models, especially following recent weaknesses in equity markets within this sector.
The report does not overlook immediate risks. Coinbase flags absent U.S. data due to the government shutdown, potential liquidity declines in November, and ongoing uncertainties surrounding DATs as justifications for maintaining strict sizing and timing strategies.
Nevertheless, Coinbase Institutional concludes on a steady note: liquidity conditions, policy advancements, and growing on-chain activity—driven by stablecoins and evolving ETF infrastructures—remain supportive as the year comes to a close, with bitcoin potentially poised to lead if these supports endure.
