Key takeaways:
Santiment data indicates increasing fear among XRP traders, a trend that previously resulted in a 125% rebound.
XRP’s triangle breakout aims for $4.29, bolstered by whale accumulation and ETF optimism.
XRP (XRP) is experiencing a significant drop in bullish sentiment among retail traders, as fear and frustration resurface to levels reminiscent of the sell-off triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements in April.
Is XRP price going to crash?
The bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio for XRP has dipped below 1.0 for the last two days, indicating that negative mentions surpass positive ones across social media, as per onchain analytics platform Santiment.
However, Santiment views this so-called “retail FUD” (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) as a positive sign.
The basis of their optimistic outlook lies in XRP’s response to the sentiment ratio drop in April. During that time, the token first fell by over 25%, but subsequently surged by more than 125%, suggesting that the broader market moved “opposite to small trader expectations.”
In essence, when impatient XRP traders started selling near local lows, stronger investors stepped in to accumulate and mitigate bearish pressure. The token could experience a price breakout rather than a crash if the fractal unfolds as Santiment predicts.
Top XRP address cohorts are accumulating
On-chain metrics monitoring retail and whale addresses further support a bullish perspective.
For example, the XRP supply among entities holding over 100 tokens has been steadily increasing during recent months of price consolidation, according to data resource Glassnode.
XRP traders remain resilient as wider risk markets strengthen amidst a weaker US dollar and the ongoing US government shutdown.
Increasing optimism about potential SEC approval of XRP ETFs has also helped counteract social media negativity, indicating that on-chain and institutional sentiment remains strongly bullish.
XRP symmetrical triangle breakout hints at 45% rally next
From a technical standpoint, XRP seems to be in the breakout phase of its symmetrical triangle pattern.
The price is currently experiencing a slight pullback to retest the upper boundary of the triangle it just broke out from. In technical analysis, this is known as a “retest,” where the market verifies whether a former resistance level can now serve as support.
A successful rebound from this level could pave the way for a rally towards $4.29, approximately 45% above current prices. This upside target corresponds with multiple bullish XRP predictions shared previously.
Related: XRP price: Why October will be the most bullish month of 2025
Conversely, a decisive break below the trendline would nullify the bullish setup, increasing the likelihood of a more significant XRP price pullback towards the lower boundary around $2.33.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
