Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off its first full week of “Uptober” having just reached a new all-time high. What can we anticipate for BTC price movements ahead?
Bitcoin achieved a new record over the weekend, yet traders anticipate some consolidation prior to targeting $150,000.
Key price support retests for BTC focus on $118,000 and above.
According to an AI-powered BTC price prediction tool, classic bull-market gains might take longer to materialize.
This week, macroeconomic signals are expected from Federal Reserve officials amidst the ongoing US government shutdown.
Crypto market sentiment narrowly escapes “extreme greed” with Bitcoin’s ascent to all-time highs.
$150,000 is the new BTC price target
After an extraordinary weekend all-time high, Bitcoin is consolidating near the peak of its historical trading range to commence the week.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that BTC/USD is trading around $124,000.
The initiation of futures trading created a “gap” that quickly got filled—something trader Daan Crypto Trades labeled a “classic weekend squeeze and retrace.”
“Bitcoin did create a relatively minor gap on the CME futures chart, but nothing significant,” he mentioned in an X post.
“There’s still a larger gap at $110K from last weekend, but I wouldn’t place value on that until the price approaches it by a few percent. Particularly if this trend continues into price discovery, significant gaps often remain on both the CME chart and liquidity levels.”
Trader Crypto Tony noted that BTC price upside targets depend on how it handles $123,000.
Weekly closed above $123,000. Now the bulls need to defend this level for sustained bullishness. pic.twitter.com/Kn0vJ2dxfL
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) October 6, 2025
“$BTC has encountered a significant resistance level,” crypto analyst and entrepreneur Ted Pillows noted.
“Yesterday, Bitcoin surpassed this level, but the move was entirely driven by perpetual contracts. If institutions bid again like last week, a reclaim is feasible.”
Looking at the larger picture, demand for higher price levels remains strong, with Cointelegraph revealing expectations of $150,000 or more on the horizon.
Good morning!#Bitcoin‘s new upward movement has begun, following a new ATH and a new highest weekly close.
Next target: $150,000. pic.twitter.com/p5EJqusjDR
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 6, 2025
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe expressed that the $150,000 target should follow a consolidation phase.
“I don’t anticipate that #Bitcoin will surge through the ATH immediately. It requires a bit of patience before it continues its movement,” he stated to his X followers on Monday.
“In that regard, I expect to see a correction, and anything below $121.5K presents a favorable entry point before we head to $150K.”
Bitcoin traders anticipate a potential 4% dip
As reported by Cointelegraph, market participants continue to foresee a possible BTC price retracement from record highs.
No bull run proceeds in a straight line, and significant targets for a support retest are now emerging.
Among these is the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour time frames, presently sitting at $119,250 and rising swiftly.
“For the upcoming week, I expect we might see a retest of the 4h50EMA—it’s currently overextended, as shown by previous similar price actions,” trader CrypNuevo mentioned in an X thread on Sunday.
“Following that, we should witness a new upward movement. Consequently, I remain inclined towards longs over shorts from the 4h50EMA.”
An accompanying chart illustrated the results of interaction with the EMA since early May.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that it would be unreasonable to expect the price to surge into unfamiliar territory without first establishing support at the top of its range.
“It shouldn’t be a surprise that Bitcoin has rejected from ~$124k on the first attempt within this uptrend. After all, the last time Bitcoin rejected from $124k, it preceded a -13% pullback,” he noted to his followers on X over the weekend.
“Bitcoin needs to demonstrate that this $124k resistance is a weakening point of rejection. Any shallower dip or pullback from here would achieve just that.”
Rekt Capital suggested that a 4% dip toward a rising trend line around $118,000 would ensure that Bitcoin remains “well-positioned for further upside later.”
“I would not want to see the price lose the $117K-$118K area again. This was essentially the mid-range and a very high volume zone,” Daan Crypto Trades outlined in his X update on Monday.
“Overall structure appears solid, just needs to maintain higher highs and higher lows moving forward. If it starts to range again between $112K-$124K that may not bode well for the larger perspective, I believe.”
AI predicts no more Bitcoin “Uptober”
Amid growing excitement over the crypto bull run’s next phase, a new prediction tool may disappoint those eager for rapid gains.
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Monday, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant expressed uncertainty over how “Uptober” may evolve.
“Following a significant uptrend, the price has fallen into a consolidation phase between the essential support at 108,000 and the resistance at 123,000,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.
“This price action on the technical chart indicates signs of a ‘re-accumulation’ period, during which large market players may be building their positions for the next main move.”
BTC/USD surprised many with a new all-time high over the weekend, but despite this, the remainder of the month could fall short of expectations.
According to CryptoQuant, this is supported by its AI. The proprietary forecasting tool, NBeats Ensemble, which analyzes data from nearly 400 “on-chain features,” now suggests that the odds of an October BTC price breakout are “low.”
“The model projects continued oscillations within the present range. However, there’s a subtle but crucial nuance in this forecast: the model expects these fluctuations to primarily occur in the upper half of the range,” the post stated.
Bitcoin should consequently spend several weeks gearing up for a resistance breakout, transitioning $123,000 from a resistance level to support. Holders will require patience in the meantime.
“By merging technical analysis with the AI model’s forecast, the most likely scenario for October 2025 indicates the continuation of Bitcoin’s neutral, range-bound movement,” CryptoQuant concluded.
“Traders need to closely observe the support level at 108,000 and resistance at 123,000, as a decisive breach of either level could dictate the next mid-term directional movement.”
Fed officials to address shutdown impacts
The ongoing US government shutdown adds another layer to the delayed macroeconomic data this week.
This sets the stage for an intriguing series of appearances by senior Federal Reserve officials, many of whom are set to speak in the coming days.
These include SEC Chair Jerome Powell, who will provide prerecorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will make two presentations at the event.
Powell has faced ongoing pressure from US President Donald Trump to accelerate interest rate cuts, something the Fed only initiated last month after maintaining steady rates throughout 2025.
The lack of data, particularly regarding the weakening labor market, creates tension. The Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for about three weeks from now.
“Markets are anticipating the October and December Fed meetings amid the shutdown,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X thread.
For crypto and risk asset optimists, supportive factors persist. The shutdown, sources suggest, is likely to remain a “non-event” for the markets, and with six months of consecutive gains for US stocks, there is increasingly little reason to doubt the upward trend.
“The stock market continues climbing the ‘wall of worry,’ trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted in its latest newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Despite worries about the condition of the labor market and economic effects of the government shutdown, the S&P 500 remains near record highs and has maintained over 108 consecutive days trading above its 50-day moving average.”
Among the potential risks to the strength of the bullish rally, Mosaic identified a possible rebound in US dollar strength, as signaled by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The index has struggled with recovery after reaching 96.22 in mid-September—its lowest since February 2022.
Greedy, but not overly so?
In just ten days, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dramatically shifted—yet traders remain composed amidst all-time highs.
Related: Bitcoin may move ‘very quick’ to $150K, altseason doubts: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 28 – Oct. 4
The latest insights from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicate that while “greed” currently dominates, excessive emotions have not yet infiltrated the market.
On Sunday, the Index peaked at 74/100 before retracting to 71/100 at the start of the week, stopping short of the “extreme greed” zone.
These figures still represent a threefold increase compared to the lows of 26/100 seen on September 26.
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high in mid-August also recorded peak Fear & Greed Index readings of 75/100, with the rise to $125,700 thus forming a slight divergence with price.
In another sentiment measure, derived from the crypto analytics platform Alphractal, closely monitored the late September lows and subsequent recovery.
This is the most accurate sentiment analysis metric in the crypto market that I know.
The Fear and Greed Index generates some noise, but this one is the pure alpha of the sentiment from analysts who set the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin😆Chart: @Alphractal https://t.co/slClE3mj1T pic.twitter.com/oFr9kzv4UM
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 3, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
