Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is set to finish September with a 4.50% increase, a configuration that historically triggers robust Q4 rallies.
Onchain data indicates strengthening spot demand, primarily driven by US investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to end September positively, with a 4.50% rise to approximately $113,100 on the month’s final trading day. Traditionally, a positive September has served as a strong precursor for the market, frequently heralding substantial rallies in the last quarter of the year.
According to data, historical instances of Bitcoin closing a green monthly candle in September (2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024) resulted in average Q4 returns exceeding 53%. Breaking it down, October averaged 21.8%, November 10.8%, while December showed a decline of 3.2%, indicating October as a crucial ignition point with varying year-end performance.
In those cases, Bitcoin’s Q4 returns ranged from 45% to 66%, often driving BTC to new heights. Should a similar trend unfold, BTC might target the $170,000 mark before year-end, based on current figures.
Seasonality data illustrates that October usually serves as a launchpad, with gains carrying into November and, on some occasions, December. This effect is particularly profitable in post-halving years, as capital inflows and market positioning push Bitcoin into new price discovery.
Cointelegraph recently shared insights from Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, who indicated that around 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance typically occurs after October 3, with momentum regularly extending into June. The analyst also noted a 50% chance of BTC reaching $200,000 by mid-2026, bolstered by recurring seasonality-driven bullish phases. However, Peterson also added,
“This year, it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions. However, most of the time, the big gains don’t start until about the third week.”
While past performance does not guarantee future outcomes, Bitcoin’s tendency to surge after a positive September lends credence to optimistic forecasts for the upcoming months. With Bitcoin securely trading above $110,000, the last quarter could once again prove pivotal for the asset.
Related: Did Bitcoin price bottom at $108K? 3 reasons that the worst is over
BTC spot activity indicators turn bullish
Onchain metrics also suggest a strengthening bullish perspective for Bitcoin. The Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) on a 90-day basis turned positive on Monday, marking its first green signal since July 14. This metric tracks the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes, with a positive indication reflecting a Taker Buy Dominant Phase where buying pressure surpasses selling activity.
At the same time, the Coinbase premium index has demonstrated persistent accumulation by US investors. Data revealed concentrated clusters of green activity throughout the third quarter, indicating robust spot demand not seen since early July. The alignment of the Coinbase premium with the Spot Taker CVD shift strengthens the perspective that buying momentum is amplifying in the market.
Related: Bitcoin gears up for ‘Uptober’ after $114K rally revives bulls
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
