Key takeaways:
XRP remains close to the $2.75 support, with an 8–10% drop potential to $2.50.
Onchain URPD data revealed a solid buyer cluster between $2.45 and $2.55.
Liquidity compression and ETF triggers suggest a possible expansion phase ahead.
XRP (XRP) price movement is at a critical juncture, consolidating at the base of a descending triangle, a generally bearish formation. It is currently around the $2.75 support, but ongoing selling pressure could push prices down toward the $2.65 to $2.45 range.
This movement could indicate an 8% to 10% decline, aligning with a daily fair value (FVG) gap that matches with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area may attract liquidity and serve as a potential launchpad for bullish momentum.
Onchain data reinforces this analysis. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) for XRP shows a concentrated group of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55, indicating a strong support level for many in that price range. This suggests that if the price returns to this level, buyers could defend it robustly, setting the stage for a rebound.
XRP’s activity has been in line with its fractal pattern from Q1. The altcoin has tested the $2.65 level twice, yet the historical setup indicates that a dip below this point into the liquidity-rich FVG is likely before a substantial rally.
Another notable parallel between the current setup and the previous fractal is the pattern of weakness into the weekend, followed by an FVG sweep at the beginning of the week. Should this scenario unfold, XRP could revisit the $2.50 area as soon as Monday.
However, while the resemblance is significant, historical fractals do not ensure an exact replay of price movements, and market dynamics may still differ from previous patterns.
A decisive break above $2.90 could invalidate the bearish outlook early, but present market dynamics indicate one final pullback into the $2.50 range.
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XRP liquidity compression, ETF catalysts forecast volatility
Market analyst Sistine Research indicated that XRP may be nearing a significant expansion phase in the coming months. Their analysis highlighted that XRP’s restricted price action over the past 10 weeks is compressing its order book into a narrower range and leaving larger gaps between price levels.
XRP is experiencing its third compression phase since the US elections in November 2024, the tightest phase to date, built on three consecutive higher price points. Such conditions often precede sharp breakouts when liquidity is released.
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay added that spot market flows reflect the ongoing contest between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spot taker CVD shows sellers have maintained control despite brief strong buyer activity earlier in 2025. For sustained upward movement, a notable volume shift from buyers is essential, which remains absent.
Meanwhile, developments regarding ETFs are significant. Franklin Templeton’s decision regarding the XRP ETF has been postponed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR debuted with nearly $38 million in volume on its first day. Experts warn that enthusiasm may already be priced in, increasing the probability of “sell the news” scenarios.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
