BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made adjustments to his Hyperliquid (HYPE) portfolio on September 21.
This latest move raises questions about his ability to trade with confidence while still holding bold long-term predictions.
Arthur Hayes Sells $5.1 Million HYPE Weeks After Forecasting 126x Surge
On September 21, Hayes sold 96,600 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens, valued at approximately $5.1 million. Remarkably, he had maintained this position for just a month.
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According to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence, the sale earned him about $823,000 in profit, roughly 19%.
However, the transaction raised eyebrows since Hayes had recently predicted that HYPE could surge as much as 126x over the coming years.
Speaking at the WebX Summit in Tokyo on August 25, he argued that the token might eventually hit $5,000, citing an explosive growth in stablecoin supply and retail interest in leveraged trading.
Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual exchange that has processed billions in volume, is central to Hayes’ thesis.
He has referred to it as a “casino” tailored for retail traders seeking speculative profits in a high-risk environment.
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“This is the system that those in charge have chosen to create, and the population is going along with it. I’m going to own the casino where the plebs are going to gamble,” Hayes said in a podcast interview earlier this year.
For some, his swift exit from HYPE seems to contradict his bold predictions.
However, others view it as consistent with Hayes’ trader mentality—seizing short-term profits while advocating for long-term potential.
Did CZ and Aster Burst the Bubble for Hyperliquid Investors?
Meanwhile, some attribute his move to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who recently endorsed Aster, a project that has emerged as an unexpected market competitor for Hyperliquid.
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“He would have been right if CZ hadn’t launched Aster. That wasn’t part of the original thesis. When conditions shift, traders adapt,” one user remarked.
Beyond Zhao, OKX CEO Star Xu also acknowledged Aster as a potential competitor in the perpetuals DEX landscape. Remarkably, Xu has since deleted the post.
Nonetheless, the sale coincided with nearly a 5% drop in HYPE’s price, emphasizing how closely the market reacts to his actions.
This decline likely resulted from other traders cashing out as well, with Lookonchain identifying a whale withdrawing $122 million worth of HYPE, possibly in preparation to realize gains.
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“A whale (likely Techno_Revenant) withdrew all 2.39 million HYPE ($122 million) 4 hours ago and could sell for profit anytime. On-chain data indicates these HYPE were purchased 9 months ago by the primary wallet 0x316f…e678, tagged as Techno_Revenant. His estimated cost basis is around $12, now sitting on over $90 million in unrealized gains,” Lookonchain reported.
Nevertheless, Hayes has not fully distanced himself from DeFi risk. Data from Arkham shows that he acquired nearly $1 million worth of Ethena’s ENA token in just two days, just ahead of Hyperliquid’s pivotal vote on USDH integration.
Ethena Labs, which is backed by BlackRock, has processed over $23 billion in redemptions and committed 95% of USDH revenue back to Hyperliquid.
DeFi researcher Sherif posits that Hayes’ ENA purchases signal a broader strategic bet on the growth of the ecosystem, rather than a mere exit from HYPE.
Ultimately, Hayes’ trading actions showcase the duality of a market operator, securing current gains while still promoting the vision for the future. It highlights the significant influence narratives have on the market.
While HYPE may still achieve Hayes’ 126x prediction, the effects of CZ and Aster must not be underestimated. Nevertheless, Hayes’ actions illustrate a readiness to navigate both sides of the trade.
