Key points:
BNB is susceptible to short-term corrections but sustains a solid bullish trend above the trendline.
Breakout formations and on-chain positivity indicate potential targets between $1,250 and $1,565 by the year’s end.
BNB (BNB) surged over 10% this weekend, outperforming a largely stagnant crypto market that remained flat.
With momentum diverging from other cryptocurrencies and entering price discovery, the question arises: can the BNB token climb higher?
BNB faces “overbought” concerns in September
BNB’s recent rally has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart into overbought territory, indicating an increased risk of a short-term pullback. The token has decreased by 2.89% from its peak of $1,083.50 reached earlier today.
A correction towards the 20-4H exponential moving average (20-4H EMA; shown in green) near $1,012 appears increasingly probable in the coming days, as recent overbought conditions suggest. This short-term target aligns with the 0.236 Fib retracement level.
BNB’s decline could extend towards the 50-4H EMA around $974, a level historically providing strong trend support if selling pressure intensifies next week.
BNB price may hit $1,150 in October
Analyst Gael Gallot asserts that BNB staying above the $970 support level indicates healthy consolidation, pointing to a consistently rising trading volume and long positions in the derivatives market.
He mentioned in his Sunday update:
“BNB surpassed the 1000 mark and recorded a new high of 1074 before stabilizing near the support level of 987 to 990. Trading volume peaked at 3.28 billion during this rise, and momentum remains robust with a long short ratio of 17.71, indicating bullish positioning.”
The $970 price floor also represents the lower trendline of BNB’s larger ascending channel pattern, as illustrated below.
Since June, every retest of the lower trendline has historically triggered rebounds of 20–35% toward the top of the channel.
If this pattern repeats, BNB could exceed $1,150 in October, representing a 10% increase from current levels, even if prices initially retrace to $970 in the upcoming days.
BNB’s year-end target is $1,250 or higher
In the long run, BNB is poised for a potential year-end rally, driven by a breakout from a long-term cup-and-handle formation.
The price has surpassed the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1,037, converting it into support. Potential upside targets are set at $1,250, derived from the cup-and-handle breakout, alongside the 2.618 Fib line around $1,565, contingent on sustaining momentum.
This scenario mirrors BNB’s 2,650% surge following its ascending triangle breakout during 2020-2021.
Related: ‘Diamond hand’ investor turns $1K into $1M as BNB climbs above $1,000
BNB on-chain data leans bullish
BNB’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has returned to the optimism–anxiety zone, a level seen previously during the 2020–2021 bull run, indicative of a surge from under $50 to over $600.
The current sentiment suggests that holders are optimistic, often a sign of mid-cycle strength. With both the technical and fundamental aspects of BNB appearing robust, BNB may be entering its most bullish phase of the cycle, even if short-term corrections occur.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
