The cryptocurrency market appears to be in a “waiting room” as it prepares for the next phase of price discovery, with institutional investment potentially prolonging the typical four-year cycle, according to industry experts.
As the crypto sector anticipates its next catalyst, Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, notes that the “slow business cycle’s” liquidity conditions may extend the traditional four-year cycle into early 2026.
“Many critical components of the crypto ecosystem are ready to launch,” the prominent analyst stated in a Friday X post, adding:
“Our findings suggest (probabilistically speaking) that the cycle could extend into Q1 2026 and possibly Q2 2026 due to the slow business cycle requiring longer liquidity.”
“People must cultivate patience. The pathway is evident…but perfection in every tick should never be expected,” he elaborated.
Pal employs the business cycle score as a macroeconomic model to monitor the current phase of the global economy’s broader cycle.
“Raoul’s depiction of crypto in the ‘waiting room’ aligns well with current market behaviors,” remarked Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at the asset tokenization platform Brickken.
The recent market downturn “was not driven by on-chain metrics but stemmed from political strife between President Trump and the Federal Reserve,” the analyst stated, adding:
“What bolsters the idea of an extended cycle into 2026 is the fact that institutional positioning remains bullish.”
Institutional investments in the two top cryptocurrencies remain strong, despite the ongoing “tug-of-war” regarding interest rate policies, the analyst noted.
Additionally, stablecoin inflows on Binance have exceeded $1.65 billion, signaling a potential uptick in cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins are crucial for traders’ funding.
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SOL, SUI, DOGE may be next to leave the crypto “waiting room” — Raoul Pal
Some leading altcoins in the cryptocurrency market are on the verge of exiting the “waiting room” as they prepare for the final parabolic surge, with Solana (SOL) being the “next to exit,” Pal noted, sharing the accompanying chart.
The chart illustrates an ascending triangle pattern, recognized by technical analysts as a bullish continuation signal, suggesting a potential price breakout upon confirmation.
Following Solana, Sui (SUI) is expected to gain traction, with Dogecoin (DOGE) set to follow, particularly once the larger cryptocurrencies outside of the top 10, tracked as “OTHERS,” begin their upward trend, according to Pal.
Meanwhile, the XRP (XRP) token is positioned for a complete overhaul, while larger altcoins outside the top 10 may require “more time to launch.”
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Two months ago, Pal indicated that the current crypto market cycle exhibits similarities to 2017, a year when Bitcoin’s (BTC) price surged over 1,255%.
“It’s strikingly similar to 2017,” Pal remarked in a video from June 19, predicting a protracted crypto cycle compared to previous years, as a weakening US dollar may suggest the crypto cycle has not yet reached its apex.
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