Even with a decline in stock prices and a decrease in Bitcoin acquisitions, Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, has a 70% probability of being included in the S&P 500 index by year-end, as per crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research.
Scheduled for release on Oct. 30, Strategy’s third-quarter 2025 earnings are anticipated to show an estimated $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.
If the quarter is profitable, there’s a 60%–70% likelihood that the stock will enter the S&P 500 effective Dec. 19, according to a recent report from 10X Research.
“Capitulation often feels like the end — until it subtly signals the start,” the report notes. “The October 30 earnings release could spark renewed speculation around the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we estimate at about a 70% chance.”
Although investor sentiment towards the stock is currently “washed out,” the earnings report is seen as an “obvious catalyst” for Strategy, according to 10X.
Bitcoin slowdown and valuation strain
This forecast comes amidst widespread concerns regarding the viability of digital asset treasuries (DATs), as numerous companies have witnessed their market net asset value (mNAV) drop below crucial thresholds this year.
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The mNAV ratio assesses a company’s enterprise value relative to the worth of its crypto holdings. An mNAV exceeding 1 allows firms to raise funds by issuing new shares to acquire digital assets, whereas values below 1 complicate capital and asset expansion.
Several DATs, including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV), have seen their mNAV decline beneath this crucial threshold, effectively limiting their ability to secure funding for further acquisitions.
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Crypto market liquidity will return at “this point” of the cycle
Strategy has reduced its Bitcoin purchases over the past month, acquiring only 778 Bitcoin in October, marking one of its smallest monthly totals and a 78% decrease from the 3,526 BTC purchased in September.
Despite the slowdown in Bitcoin purchasing and a $19 billion market correction, this might represent “exactly the moment” in the crypto market cycle when “liquidity returns and significant movements occur,” according to 10X Research.
“With the NAV premium largely unwound, resulting in $18 billion in losses for investors and heightened volatility, the risk-reward dynamic has shifted from preparing for downside to anticipating what lies ahead.”
In spite of a positive outlook, Strategy received a “B-” credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, categorizing it within the speculative, non-investment grade zone often linked to “junk bonds,” even with a favorable stock price forecast.
This marks the first instance of a Bitcoin-treasury-centric firm obtaining an S&P Global evaluation, potentially setting a new precedent for traditional finance players assessing crypto companies.
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