By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
(Bitcoin) has fallen to $90,000, with the overall market following suit. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indices are both down over 3.5% on a 24-hour basis.
The decline aligns with the negative sentiment in Nasdaq futures due to Oracle’s disappointing earnings and comes after a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut. Traders noted that the hawkish guidance, suggesting only one rate cut in 2026 alongside increasing divisions among policymakers, overshadowed any easing and dragged risk assets lower.
Some analysts believe that following the last major event and with implied volatility decreasing, a significant year-end rally may not materialize. Furthermore, ETF flows do not need to surge dramatically for prices to increase.
Notably, since Nov. 11, there hasn’t been a single day of net spot ETF inflows exceeding $500 million in the U.S., as reported by SoSoValue. Before this, the last instance occurred on Oct. 7. This marks a significant slowdown compared to November-December 2024, during which ETFs saw such inflows at least one or two days each week.
The same trend can be observed from April to October, also noted for a rise in BTC from $70,000 to over $126,000.
In summary, flows are paramount, and it remains uncertain whether they will recover meaningfully in the coming days to elevate prices going into the new year.
On a brighter note: According to BRN, large wallets (holding 10–10k BTC) have accumulated approximately 42,565 BTC since Dec. 1, indicating a clear signal of accumulation by smart money. Meanwhile, short-term holders and retail investors continue to reduce their positions.
In other significant developments, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has endorsed Fileverse, a decentralized, open-source encrypted document platform that aims to serve as a Web3-native alternative to services such as Google Docs.
In a post on X, he mentioned that the project has been addressing various bugs over recent months and is now stable enough for secure document sharing, commenting, and collaboration “without further issues.”
In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recovered from a post-Fed low of 4.11% to 4.14%, indicating persistent stickiness on the higher end. Analysts at ING have stated that it is likely to rally sustainably rather than decrease.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a detailed list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Dec. 11, 11 a.m.: Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, who pleaded guilty in August to conspiracy and wire fraud charges in the U.S., faces sentencing in New York by Judge Paul Engelmayer. Prosecutors are seeking up to 12 years, while the defense requests five.
- Dec. 11, 3 p.m.: Chia (XCH) AMA on Zoom.
- Dec. 11: 21Shares Core XRP Trust (TOXR) is still awaiting launch on Cboe BZX Exchange following Cboe’s listing approval on Dec. 10; no confirmed first-trade date yet.
- Macro
- Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Dec. 6 Est. 220K, U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending Nov. 29 Est. 1950K.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a detailed list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on a one-year initiative funded by the existing DIP budget to provide financial rewards to delegates holding over 200k ARB who consistently vote and publish their reasoning. Voting concludes on Dec. 11.
- Dec. 11: Worldcoin will host an “unwrapped” livestream.
- Unlocks
- Dec. 11: to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $21.04 million.
- Token Launches
- Dec. 11: Talus Network (US) will be listed on Kraken, Gate.io, BitMart, Bitget, KuCoin, and others.
- Dec. 11: Stable (STABLE) will be listed on Bithumb.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 2.3% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $90,263.13 (24hrs: -2.24%)
- ETH is down 4.25% at $3,199.17 (24hrs: -3.71%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.25% at 2,871.54 (24hrs: -3.85%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has decreased by 1 bps to 2.8%
- BTC funding rate stands at 0.0026% (2.8021% annualized) on Binance
- DXY has decreased by 0.2% to 98.59
- Gold futures have risen by 0.47% to $4,244.40
- Silver futures are up 2.53% at $62.58
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.90% at 50,148.82
- Hang Seng closed down 0.04% at 25,530.51
- FTSE is up 0.11% at 9,666.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.19% at 5,718.99
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 1.05% at 48,057.75
- S&P 500 closed up 0.67% at 6,886.68
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.33% at 23,654.16
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.79% at 31,490.85
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.2% at 3,129.59
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.9 bps at 4.145%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.54% at 6,854.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.77% at 25,599.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.18% at 48,019.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.26% (0.27%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03539 (-2.04%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,066 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $38.52
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $248,636
- CME Futures Open Interest: 126,970 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 21.4 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 6.05%
Technical Analysis
- The chart illustrates BTC’s daily price movements in candlestick format since September.
- The Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday hasn’t altered the technical landscape, as BTC remains trapped in a counter-trend rising channel within the larger downtrend.
- A definitive move above the upper boundary of the counter trend channel would indicate a shift from bearish to bullish.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $275.09 (-0.82%), down 2% at $269.59 in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $88.41 (+2.78%), down 2.3% at $86.38
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.52 (+0.24%), down 2.1% at $28.90
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.13 (+0.04%), down 2.28%% at $45.08
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.92 (-2.69%), down 2.18% at $11.66
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.57 (+0.39%), down 1.93% at $15.27
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.33 (-0.91%), down 1.27% at $17.11
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.53 (-2.15%), down 2.89% at $14.11
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $45.91 (-3.20%), down 2.16% at $44.92
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.73 (+2.95%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $184.64 (-2.3%), down 2.43% at $180.15
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.35 (-0.1%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.02 (+3.62%), down 3.14% at $11.41
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.45 (-4.3%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.84 (+0.55%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $223.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.91 billion
- Total BTC holdings approximately 1.30 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $57.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.17 billion
- Total ETH holdings approximately 6.31 million
Source: Farside Investors
