Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term trend could depend on developments within Binance’s order flow and on-chain activity. Three Binance-linked metrics have indicated increasing sell-side pressure, altered liquidity dynamics, and a market bracing for volatility—factors that may influence whether BTC maintains support or enters a deeper correction.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin whale deposits into exchanges are rising, indicating increased profit-taking risk.
BTC inflows to Binance have reached 2025 highs, which have historically preceded extended pullbacks.
USDt deposits on Binance hit yearly peaks, suggesting that traders are repositioning themselves in anticipation of potential volatility.
BTC Whale ratio rebound signals distribution pressure
A notable increase in the Exchange Whale Ratio, now at 0.47 across all exchanges, suggests that large holders are moving Bitcoin onto trading platforms. This trend is particularly concerning for Binance, where the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the ratio has risen to 0.427, the highest level since April.
Whale deposits often precede distribution phases, as large entities tend to prefer Binance’s liquidity for offloading large amounts. With BTC struggling to surpass $93,000, this shift indicates growing overhead resistance. If this trend continues, prices may consolidate or retest support before attempting another breakout.
Yearly-high BTC inflows to Binance raise concern
On-chain data indicates that the 30-day simple-moving average (SMA) of BTC inflows to Binance reached 8,915 on Nov. 28, closely approaching its highest recorded level of 9,031 on March 3. Historically, such inflow peaks have been followed by significant downward movements.
This surge suggests that holders are actively preparing to reduce their exposure or cycle out of Bitcoin following its rally. As the market tries to establish a position above the $96,000 resistance, increasing inventory on Binance serves as an immediate obstacle. Until this excess supply is absorbed, an upward trend could be constrained.
Related: Bitcoin unlikely to replicate January’s surge to new high: 21Shares founder
USDT deposits rise: Are traders preparing for volatility?
Binance has also reported 946,000 USDt (USDT) deposit transactions in a week, significantly outpacing OKX (841,000) and Bybit (225,000). Rising stablecoin inflows typically signal that traders are preparing to act, either by aggressively buying dips or repositioning during rapid price movements.
With the current backdrop of whale selling and increased BTC inflows, this surge more likely indicates traders preparing for reactive trading rather than passive accumulation. During uncertain periods, stablecoin inflows often contribute to greater volatility and short-term range adjustments.
If BTC falls below $90,000, this liquidity could hasten the downward movement. Conversely, if support holds, it may trigger a significant counter-trend bounce.
Related: Ether outpaces Bitcoin’s trend change: Is ETH on track for a 20% rally?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
