Economist Timothy Peterson estimates that Bitcoin has a 50% chance of exceeding $140,000 before the month concludes. He shared this probability on X, supported by simulation data derived from a decade of price fluctuations to anticipate potential outcomes.
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Simulation Based On Historical Data
According to Peterson, the model conducts numerous simulations using daily Bitcoin prices dating back to 2015. Based on these simulations, he forecasts a 50% chance that Bitcoin will end the month above $140,000.
He also indicates a 43% likelihood that the price will drop below $136,000 by month’s end. At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was priced at $121,200, implying an approximate 11% increase is required to hit the $140,000 mark.
According to this AI simulation, half of Bitcoin’s gains for October may already be in.
There’s a 50% chance Bitcoin will end the month above $140k,
but a 43% chance it finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday before it retraced. The cryptocurrency kicked off October at around $116,500, indicating significant gains already for the month.
Historical data shows October is the second-strongest month on average since 2013, with typical gains around 20%. Reports have indicated that November is historically the strongest month, averaging a 46% increase since 2013.
No Human Emotion
Peterson noted that his predictions are based on data rather than emotional influences. He explained that each forecast reflects price movements aligning with Bitcoin’s historical volatility and rhythm.
This method aims to eliminate bias from short-term sentiment, yet there are limitations to what past simulations can convey.
Bitcoin’s price has sometimes deviated from historical trends. Market reactions, regulatory actions, and other factors can drive prices away from what historical data might suggest.
Market Sentiment Remains Bullish
Other analysts on social media expressed ongoing optimism following the recent highs. One analyst indicated that the market is revisiting previous highs and may rise further.
Another noted that momentum is building for additional gains. These sentiments coexist with data-driven predictions and are being closely monitored by traders and funds.
Bitcoin is now the benchmark.
If you can’t outperform it, you need to invest in it.
I discussed on @SquawkCNBC this morning why many investors are failing to achieve expected returns. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro Notes From A Prominent Investor
Reports also highlighted comments from Anthony Pompliano, who claimed on CNBC that Bitcoin’s upward momentum could continue if governments and central banks persist in increasing the money supply.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC that Bitcoin will continue to rise indefinitely.
“They will never stop printing money.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
His perspective connects monetary policy to Bitcoin’s demand, an opinion widely held among proponents who view the asset as a safeguard.
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Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView
