Bitcoin is currently trading above $113,000, with its realized cap steadily increasing and spending activity primarily driven by coins less than three months old. Profit realization remains favorable, short-term holders are around breakeven, and there is minimal distribution from older supplies.
As of Aug. 20, Bitcoin closed at $113,599, reflecting a 7.9% decline over the past week, a 3.3% drop over 30 days, yet still a 1.7% gain over 90 days. Spot turnover has decreased, with an average notional volume of $2.68 billion per day in the past week, lower than the 30-day average of $2.88 billion. This reduction in activity follows weaker weekly performance but doesn’t indicate panic selling, as on-chain flows highlight a structured profit realization rather than distress.
The realized cap, which represents the total cost basis of all circulating coins, stands at $1.04 trillion. Over the last week, it increased by $8.98 billion; over the past 30 days, it rose by $34.85 billion. These increases align closely with net realized profit and loss.
Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) indicates a seven-day total of $8.59 billion and a 30-day total of $33.25 billion. The minor discrepancies ($0.39 billion for 7 days and $1.60 billion for 30 days) correspond to the dollar value of new issuance from block rewards.
With current subsidy rates of 3.125 BTC per block, approximately 450 BTC are entering circulation daily, amounting to around $366 million over seven days and $1.58 billion over 30 days at recent prices. This reconciliation shows that the growth in realized cap is entirely accounted for by realized gains and miner issuance, with no unexplained discrepancies in the ledger.
Metrics from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) confirm a steady profit-taking pattern without indications of distress. The adjusted SOPR is at 1.028, with a seven-day average of 1.033. Throughout the past 30 days, it consistently stayed above 1, indicating that aggregate spending generally occurred profitably.
Short-term holder SOPR is currently at 0.995, with a seven-day average of 1.002, and 24 of the last 30 days have closed above 1. This reflects marginal breakeven conditions for recent buyers, with some selling at cost and others at a slight gain.
In contrast, the long-term holder SOPR is significantly higher at 1.718, with all 30 days of the past month above 1 and an average of 2.21. The long-term supply that is being moved is achieving very high profit multiples, consistent with periodic trimming rather than widespread selling.
Data on spent output age bands illustrates the prevalence of young coin movement. On Aug. 19, 94.95% of all spent outputs originated from coins less than three months old. Among this, same-day churn was the largest segment, with 0–1 day coins accounting for 83.27% of the total, followed by 1–7 day coins at 7.49%. The 1–3 month category contributed just 1.42%. Coins aged between three and twelve months represented 2.97% of spent supply, while those older than one year comprised a mere 2.08%. Over the last week, the share of coins younger than three months averaged 95.98%, contrasted with a 1.95% average for coins older than one year. Over the past 30 days, the division was even more skewed, with young coins averaging 97.14% and older supplies only 1.41%. This suggests that almost all turnover derives from highly liquid recent supplies rather than long-dormant coins.
The absence of distribution from long-term holders is further emphasized by coin days destroyed (CDD). CDD is around 15.6 million, consistent with its 30-day average, with no significant spikes exceeding two standard deviations in the past 180 days. Historically, spikes in CDD indicate movement of very old supply into the market, often preceding distribution phases. Their absence implies that older coins remain inactive, despite favorable conditions.
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), currently at 0.537 with a 30-day average of 0.561, continues to indicate that the market is in the Belief/Denial phase. This situation suggests that a significant portion of the supply is held profitably, aligning with ongoing profit-taking and turnover without widespread capitulation. Given the low frequency of the 30-day NUPL data, it should be considered more of a regime gauge rather than a short-term oscillator. Nevertheless, the reading suggests that most coins are comfortably profitable.
Correlation analysis refines the understanding of the flows. Over the past 90 days, the strongest correlation with returns is seen in short-term holder SOPR, with a correlation of +0.36. The adjusted SOPR shows only a minor positive link at +0.05, while long-term holder SOPR is nearly uncorrelated at +0.01.
This aligns with the age-band data: price action is most sensitive to short-term cost bases. Movements in older supply have been marginal and not influential on price in recent months. Analysis revealed similarly weak correlations with returns referencing NRPL (+0.08), CDD (−0.03), and spot volume (−0.13), reinforcing the conclusion that short-term profitability largely drives marginal flows.
The data depicts a market in distribution without signs of stress. Although price performance has slowed and volume has slightly decreased, the realized cap is increasing in line with issuance-adjusted realized profits. Profit-taking remains steady, with short-term holder SOPR hovering around breakeven, and long-term SOPR indicating occasional high-profit sales without overall exits. Almost all activity is led by recent coins, while older supplies remain quiet, showing no spikes in CDD. This combination suggests rotation within the active float instead of a structural exit of significant supply.
In the coming days, the key focus will be whether the short-term holder SOPR can maintain its fragile balance above 1. A decisive drop below 1 over several consecutive days would indicate that recent buyers might be capitulating, which historically accelerates drawdowns. Currently, however, the data indicates stability: new supply is being absorbed, profits are being realized, and no stress is apparent.
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