Coinbase (COIN) will announce its third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the market closes, with Wall Street anticipating a revenue beat.
According to FactSet, analysts predict the crypto exchange will report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14—up from $0.28 in Q3 last year—and revenue of $1.8 billion, an increase from $1.2 billion for the same period in 2024.
However, this optimism is not consistent. Analysts from JP Morgan, Barclays, and Compass Point agree on the strength of blockchain rewards, USDC yields, and trading activity but differ significantly on the implications for profitability and the potential value Coinbase could generate from its Layer-2 blockchain, Base.
JP Morgan’s Kenneth Worthington stands out as the most optimistic, upgrading Coinbase to “Overweight” with a price target of $404 for December 2026. His analysis hinges on Coinbase’s exploration of a Base token, which he believes could achieve a market cap of $12 billion to $34 billion, allowing Coinbase to retain up to 40% and potentially adding $14 to $42 per share in equity value.
He also notes potential upside from Coinbase’s subscription product, Coinbase One, which segments USDC customers. By restricting stablecoin yield rewards to paying members, Worthington estimates Coinbase could generate up to $1 per share in additional earnings annually, depending on customer behavior.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, holding an Equal Weight rating on the company, shares a positive revenue outlook but adopts a more cautious stance. He expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed consensus by 6%, boosted by retail trading and strong USDC-related interest income.
Budish estimates Q3 transaction revenue at $1.05 billion, surpassing Street forecasts, and predicts $771 million in subscription and services revenue, above management guidance. However, he reduces his price target to $361 from $365, pointing to broader market multiple compression.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel is more doubtful. While he acknowledges that Q3 results will likely exceed expectations, he maintains a “Sell” rating. He is concerned about Coinbase’s transition to lower-margin subscription revenues and argues that USDC and staking payouts could erode profitability. Engel warns of declining retail activity in the latter part of the quarter and believes the acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit, while strategically compelling, faces increasing competition from regulated U.S. venues like CBOE.
Notably, Engel does not mention the Base token potential that JP Morgan highlights, suggesting less confidence or clarity on that long-term prospect.
However, all three firms agree that USDC is becoming a significant profit center. They emphasize how Coinbase benefits from its partnership with Circle (CRCL) and growing stablecoin balances. Yet, the analysts differ on how much revenue Coinbase can retain as it adjusts reward structures and encourages users to transition to paid tiers.
As Coinbase further develops subscription services, on-chain infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s earnings report will not only reflect its recent performance but also reveal which vision of the company’s future is more accurate.
