Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) informed viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s recent pullback is following a familiar seasonal and structural pattern, and that the upcoming major market movement depends on a distinct support range. “Maintain $107k to $98K,” he stated, identifying this area as crucial for the next phase of the bull cycle. “It’s that straightforward.”
During his stream, emerging amidst a wave of bearish sentiment as BTC dipped to $108,651, Kevin contended that the current downturn should not take disciplined traders by surprise. He contextualized the present market behavior within an extended period of caution that began in early August, when he pointed out weekly bearish divergences in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the total altcoin market (Total2), leading into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.
“Many assume that symmetric triangulations following upward movements are continuation patterns,” he stated, “but in reality, these rarely break out positively in the crypto market.” He referenced a series of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and emphasized that, despite sharp rallies in certain altcoins, the majors have consistently struggled to surpass “any significant resistance levels.”
Bitcoin Top Until Proven Otherwise
At the core of Kevin’s analysis is the convergence of indicators on higher time frames. On the weekly chart of Bitcoin, he noted rising price peaks coupled with declining momentum—“fundamental strength and momentum indicators,” which, while not signals by themselves, provide context that “has been diminishing for an extended period.”
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Total2, he indicated, showed “a triple top on the weekly” just below the $1.71–$1.74 trillion range—“the critical resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD indicators turning bearish. According to him, the momentum stocks are resetting exactly where they should be during historically low late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is typically not favorable for crypto,” Kevin noted. “August and September are usually poor months. They consistently are.”
In this context, he suggested that USDT dominance serves as the most consistent inter-market guide. “USDT dominance is the ultimate chart. There isn’t a better chart,” he stated, analyzing a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support around 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies towards a declining trendline that have outlined crypto cycle lows and highs for the past two years.
Each approach to the flat bottom, he pointed out, has formed a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed at local peaks; each rejection at the downtrend has aligned with crypto market shifts. “You literally don’t need any other chart in all of crypto,” he claimed. “All you require is Bitcoin and USDT dominance to navigate this cycle perfectly.”
Tactically, Kevin highlighted a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—which serves as the bull-market support band—close to $109.2K as significant points of interest, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band around $101K.
He emphasized that he doesn’t want to see “Bitcoin dip below $106.8K” if the cycle remains intact, although a brief dip into that region to “sweep the liquidity” would align with past resets. He identified $98K as a critical level that should hold firm. “There’s substantial support in that area,” he remarked. “I’d be quite surprised if Bitcoin couldn’t bounce back from there.”
All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality
Kevin linked structural signals to a specific macro checklist, asserting that enduring cycle tops and bottoms correlate more closely with fundamental drivers than technical chart patterns alone. He referenced the inflation surge of 2021 and the commencement of the Fed’s rate hikes as pivotal factors behind that cycle’s 55–60% drop, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as the peak catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.
“There’s always a macro-related reason that aligns with the charts,” he noted. Conversely, he does not perceive any cycle-ending macro triggers today: inflation metrics have been “quite erratic” yet stable; the Fed is generally expected to ease rates as the year concludes if labor metrics soften; and seasonality tends to favor Q4.
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He emphasized the importance of upcoming calendar events—core PCE, CPI, and labor statistics in early October—as pivotal for market sentiment. “By mid-October… we’ll start to gain insight into the market’s future direction,” he indicated. “If we reach mid-October and Bitcoin maintains key support… alongside favorable macroeconomic data and possibly another rate cut… the likelihood increases that Bitcoin will [rise]—and then you’re into Q4.”
His remarks about volatility positioning suggest a significant directional shift is expected once the reset concludes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin noted that BTC has displayed record-low values three times this cycle—each during Q3—and each time began with a decline of 18–29% before soaring to new heights.
“A significant movement in Bitcoin is imminent. It has not occurred yet,” he mentioned, asserting that spot volumes have diminished since November while bands have narrowed to historic levels. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K “is conceivable,” but not mandatory; the vital idea is that the broader $107K–$98K range acts as a launchpad.
Kevin also set clear parameters for both invalidation and upside triggers. He described $125K as “a significant top for now” and indicated that the market requires weekly and monthly closes beyond that point to validate trend continuation.
Regarding dominance, he pointed out 59.0% and 60.28% as immediate resistance that might catalyze a BTC-led phase if surpassed; otherwise, he anticipates a shift back to altcoins once Bitcoin establishes a base and USDT dominance forms a lower high. “Stop focusing on the altcoins” until those inter-market signals reverse, he advised, emphasizing the need for patience, risk management, and capitalizing on profits during resistance phases.
His conclusion merges caution with opportunity. “Maintain $107k to 98K,” he reiterated. “Advance into October. Navigate through the initial weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will ultimately hit a low following that data and then gradually ascend.” However, he cautioned that if macro conditions appear harmless and “Bitcoin continues to deteriorate,” traders should be prepared to reevaluate their cycle thesis. Until that moment, Kevin’s message is resolutely pragmatic: respect the seasonal volatility, track inter-market indicators, and let the higher-time-frame levels guide decision-making. “Being correct is the best acknowledgment you can achieve,” he said. “It’s not merely about making statements that attract a lot of attention.”
As of the latest update, BTC was trading at $109,607.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
