Highlights:
Ether surged 75% against Bitcoin in Q3, but experienced a slight dip in September.
Retail investor involvement has been low, diverging from institutional activity.
In Q3, Ether (ETH) appreciated by 75% compared to Bitcoin, and despite recent price stagnation, traders remain optimistic about the altcoin reaching $5,000 by 2025.
Data from Glassnode revealed a strong focus on Ether among futures traders, with its open interest dominance at 43.3%, the fourth highest recorded, while Bitcoin’s stands at 56.7%. Ethereum’s perpetual futures volume dominance also reached a record 67%, marking the largest shift of trading activity towards Ether in history.
Moreover, analyst Crazzyblockk from CryptoQuant pointed out the crucial requirement for a potential Ether breakout. The analyst stressed that reclaiming the $4,580 level, linked to accumulation and outflows from exchanges, is essential.
On Thursday, over 1.28 million ETH, valued at more than $5.3 billion, transferred into long-term accumulation addresses, suggesting that a successful reclaim could shift market sentiment and lead to a $5,000 breakout.
ETH has established support around $4,100, which aligns with the average cost basis of active addresses.
Related: Last opportunity for Ethereum? ETH price trend breaks down as $4K support is vital
Institutional interest shrinks Ether supply, but is retail lagging?
Recent Ether demand has significantly stemmed from institutions, leading to a decrease in circulating supply. US spot ETH ETFs witnessed an increase in total net assets from $10.32 billion in June to $27.48 billion in September, amassing over $17 billion during July and August.
Further institutional interest has been observed from Strategic Ethereum Reserves, driven by Bitmine and SharpLink, whose allocations grew from 5,445,458 ETH on July 1 to 12,029,054 ETH by September 23—a 121% rise, currently valued at approximately $46 billion.
Despite this increase in institutional holdings, retail participation seems to be decreasing. Net taker volume on Binance has remained negative over the last month, peaking in late September, indicating ongoing sell-side pressure even in a generally enthusiastic altcoin market.
The spot taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator, tracking the cumulative market buy-sell difference over 90 days, has shown sell dominance since late July. This indicates that retail traders have been more inclined to sell ETH than buy, further underscoring the gap between institutional acquisitions and retail activity.
If retail flows become positive and the spot taker CVD transitions to a buy-dominant stage, ETH may experience a rally led by retail, complementing the sustained institutional accumulation and potentially boosting wider market momentum.
Related: Ethereum bulls speculate on a supercycle, but skepticism remains on Wall Street
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
