Key takeaways:
Bitcoin options expiry in September leans towards bullish positions as long as BTC maintains the $110,000 support level.
While bullish bets are gaining traction, macroeconomic factors introduce potential downside risks.
On Friday, $22.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options will expire, marking a pivotal moment following the sharp rejection at $117,000. Currently, bullish strategies are better positioned, provided the $112,000 threshold holds.
Deribit continues to lead the market, with $17.4 billion in open interest for Friday’s Bitcoin options, while OKX and CME each hold $1.9 billion. Call (buy) options significantly outnumber put (sell) contracts, reflecting ongoing optimism among cryptocurrency traders.
Neutral-to-bullish Bitcoin positions are favored
The September expiry conforms to typical trends, with put open interest sitting 20% lower than the $12.6 billion in call positions. The outcome will depend on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, with an advantage for call holders hinging on whether prices remain above $112,000.
Traders’ positioning at Deribit indicates that neutral-to-bearish bets are targeting the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which seems increasingly unlikely. A large segment of call contracts was placed at optimistic levels, with $6.6 billion in open interest at $120,000 and higher, leaving around $3.3 billion realistically in play.
Simultaneously, 81% of put options at Deribit are set at $110,000 or lower, leaving only $1.4 billion active. This scenario strongly favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes, although the analysis does not include more intricate strategies, such as selling puts to gain upside exposure. To determine whether professionals genuinely lean bullish, traders are monitoring the options skew metric.
The Bitcoin options delta skew indicates moderate fear at 13%, with put options trading at a premium compared to equivalent call contracts. Under neutral circumstances, this gauge should remain within -6% and 6%, signaling that whales and market makers are apprehensive about downside risks at the current $113,500 mark.
Related: Bitcoin is expected to ‘move up smartly again’ toward the end of 2025–Saylor
$112,000 is crucial for Bitcoin’s momentum
Below are three possible scenarios at Deribit based on current price trajectories:
Between $107,000 and $110,000: $1 billion in calls (buy) vs. $2 billion in puts (sell). The net result favors puts by $1 billion.
Between $110,100 and $112,000: $1.4 billion in calls vs. $1.4 billion in puts, leading to a balanced outcome.
Between $112,100 and $115,000: $1.66 billion in calls vs. $1 billion in puts, favoring calls by $660 million.
It may be premature to dismiss bearish options strategies entirely. Trader sentiment could shift based on key macroeconomic indicators expected on Thursday, including US gross domestic product (GDP) data, weekly jobless claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.
The current unstable economic environment supports further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, usually a bullish signal for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, ongoing concerns about labor market weaknesses contribute to risk aversion, negatively impacting Bitcoin’s price.
At present, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry appears to favor bulls, although a definitive drop below $112,000 remains possible.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
